RISUD Research Seminar - Numerical Prediction of Extreme Weather Events in the Greater Bay Area

Situated in a semi-enclosed coastal region, the Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a region with prominent activities of air-sea interaction. Severe weather events such as tropical cyclones and severe precipitation frequently attack this region, and substantially impact live safety and economy of this highly populated region. These severe weather events usually involve multi-scale processes, and have distinctive features and effects related to multi-scale atmospheric hydrological condition of the region. There is an urgent need for understanding dynamics of these severe atmospheric processes so as to produce accurate forecast for the region. In our research group, the forecast and dynamics of severe weather events in the GBA are studied by an innovative approach in which the processes at different scales (large-eddy scale to mesoscale) and their mutual interactions are inclusively considered. Based on the high-resolution observational data over the region and sophisticated numerical models with data assimilation, a Regional Meteorological Analysis and Prediction System (ReMAPS) has been developing as a simulation system for the weather dynamic mechanism studies and as a prediction system for the operational weather forecasting. The ReMAPS integrates real-time automated forecasting and analysis, encompassing data assimilation, regional super ensemble forecasting, and diagnostic post-processing. With continuous version updates, ReMAPS incorporates the latest model forecasting technologies, including refined terrain and land-use datasets, satellite and radar data assimilation, extended forecasting, and physical parameterization scheme optimization techniques. It provides specialized meteorological technical support for various sectors and departments, including meteorology, civil aviation, and water resources.