The SHTM has joined forces with the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) to publish the 10th report in their series of Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts. This will provide the region's travel and tourism sector, hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with much-needed projections of tourist numbers in the coming years.
Covering a three-year horizon, the report features the latest scenario-based forecasts for international visitor arrivals
to 39 Asia Pacific destinations between 2022 and 2024. It presents three possible scenarios for each destination, depending on whether the effects of the pandemic turn out to be mild, medium or severe. Among the projections essential to tourism planners and operators, by 2024 the total visitor arrival numbers across the region are predicted to recover from 129.4 million in 2020 to 817.7 million, 702.5 million and 501.9 million under the mild, medium and severe scenarios, respectively. Compared
with 2019 figures, the recovery rates are forecast to be 116.2%, 99.8% and 71.3%, respectively.
Amongst the six destination regions and sub-regions of the Asia Pacific region, South Asia is expected to have the highest recovery rate of 123.3% under the mild scenario as it returned to more than 90% of the 2019 volume of visitors, in 2021. The number of international visitors to the Pacific and the Americas is projected to increase faster than in other regions/sub-regions, with a recovery rate of 105% under the medium scenario and 80.3% and 79.2%, respectively,
under the severe scenario. The lowest recovery rate under the mild scenario is likely to be for Northeast Asia, which is expected to return to 112.6% of 2019 figures in 2024. Under the medium scenario, South Asia is predicted to be the slowest recovering sub-region with a recovery rate of 95%, while under the severe scenario the slowest recovery is expected to be in West Asia, with a rate of 61.3%.
While these forecasts are contingent on the development of COVID-19 and economic recovery
over the forecast period, the robust and careful research conducted by the SHTM and PATA allows for informed optimism. Although the overall trends in these latest forecasts are positive, recovery will depend on both containing the global pandemic and on economic growth, which will create the conditions for tourism to pick up. With the landscape for tourism looking very different in the post-pandemic era, these forecasts provide crucial insights for the global industry to improve its recovery
strategies and prepare for the new era.
To maintain the region's competitive edge, the PATA Visitor Forecasts report serves as a reliable and effective forecasting system that is essential in helping destinations develop strategies for the years to come. The SHTM prides itself on its forecasting expertise and is proud to have joined forces with PATA to publish "Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2022-2024". Members of the School's Hospitality and Tourism Resource Centre publish
world-leading research and provide consultancy services for tourism organisations worldwide. The School is delighted to be part of the PATA forecasting initiative; turning its knowledge into practice is high on the SHTM's research agenda.
The "Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2022-2024" report is the work of the SHTM's Hospitality and Tourism Resource Centre headed by Professor Haiyan Song, SHTM Associate Dean, Chair Professor and Mr and Mrs Chan Chak Fu Professor in International
Tourism. Along with colleagues from the School and other institutions, the team included Professor Gang Li of the University of Surrey, Dr Vera Lin of the Zhejiang University, Dr Anyu Liu and Ms Yangting Cai of the SHTM, Dr Richard Qiu of the University of Macau, as well as Dr Long Wen of the University of Nottingham Ningbo China.
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