Risk Modelling and Risk-aware Planning in Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management (UTM)

Abstract

The safe and scalable integration of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) operations requires a robust risk-aware framework within the Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management (UTM) ecosystem. This seminar presents a systematic approach to risk modelling and risk-aware planning in UTM, focusing on both theoretical foundations and practical implementations. Prof. Shin begins with the development of a multi-dimensional risk model, incorporating first-party risks such as dynamic airspace configurations, GNSS vulnerabilities, and radio frequency interference, alongside third-party risks including probabilistic collision modelling. Techniques for spatio-temporal risk map generation, model calibration, and validation using empirical and simulated data will be discussed.

He will then delve into risk-aware mission planning algorithms that optimise flight trajectories to minimise cumulative risk while satisfying operational constraints and performance objectives. This includes formulations that balance safety and efficiency metrics in real-time UTM services. The design of vertiport locations is examined in consideration of regulatory compliance and risk minimisation, leveraging geospatial analysis and policy-aware constraints. Finally, he will address the challenges of verification and validation of risk-aware UTM systems and outline future research directions, including open problems in risk quantification, multi-agent coordination under uncertainty, and collaborative frameworks for cross-disciplinary integration.

Speaker

Prof. Hyo-Sang Shin is a Professor at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) and an Adjunct Professor of Guidance, Control and Navigation Systems at Cranfield University. He is the Head of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems Groups and leads relevant research areas at KAIST, including unmanned traffic management (UTM), urban air mobility (UAM), advanced air mobility (AAM), sensor, data and information fusion, and data-driven guidance and control. He gained an MSc in the formation flight of unmanned aerial vehicles in Aerospace Engineering from KAIST and a PhD in cooperative missile guidance from Cranfield University in 2006 and 2011, respectively. After joining Cranfield University in 2011 and KAIST in 2024, he has published 3 books, 11 book chapters, over 110 journal papers and 150 conference papers. He has been also involved in many research programs and has been the coordinator of international projects, with a total of 47 projects. Prof. Shin is committed to the research community as a member of various technical committees (including IFAC Technical Committee on Aerospace Control and the IEEE Technical Committee on Aerial Robotics and Unmanned Aerial Systems), as well as program and editorial boards.