Applying sophisticated mathematical modelling techniques, Dr He Daihai, Assistant Professor of PolyU’s Department of Applied Mathematics, and four co-researchers in Canada conducted a study that can explain the phenomenon of multiple waves of influenza pandemic in the last century. The research findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society Biological Sciences (July 2013 issue) and will lead to improved strategies to control and minimize the spread of influenza virus.

The researchers incorporated in their mathematical model three contributing factors for multiple waves of influenza pandemic in England and Wales: (i) schools opening and closing; (ii) temperature changes during the outbreak; and (iii) changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak.

The research team further applied this model to the reported influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic in 334 British administrative units and estimated the epidemiological parameters. They used information criteria to evaluate how well these three factors explained the observed patterns of mortality. The results indicated that all three factors were important, but behavioural response had the largest impact. Details>>