Mathematical models to help the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic – Dr. Daihai He (AMA)
Description:
We develop both statistical and differential equation type of models for the transmission of COVID-19. We simulate these models stochastically on UBDA. We use state-of-the-art iterated filtering method to estimate values of the unknown parameters. We estimated the several key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19, including the basic reproductive number, the serial interval (as a proxy of the generation interval), the dispersion parameter, the relapse rate among recovered and discharged patient, the relative transmission rate of asymptomatic patients, and the epidemic size in Wuhan. Our estimates are ahead than most of other teams and later confirmed by other teams. Our works have been cited more than 600 times according to Google Scholar and caught media attention. We earned a collaborative research grant (HKD450,000) from Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd. We have assisted the development of Alibaba’s COVID-19 platform.
Reference:
- Lin Q, etal. 2020. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 93:211-216.
- Zhao S, et al. 2020. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 01-050.
- Stone L, He D, Lehnstaedt S, Artzy-Randrup Y (2020). Sudden collapse of massive typhus epidemic in Warsaw Ghetto. Science Advances accepted.
