Recent Consultancy Projects | Centre for Infrastructure Delivery

Project Surveillance System (PSS) Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA)

Project Surveillance System (PSS)

The PSS has been implemented on Category A projects under the Capital Works Programme starting from October 2018. This tool was established based upon the cashflow data of completed projects in the past 20 years and it facilitates works departments to foresee challenges or potential problems of on-going projects and provides early warning signals to the senior management for necessary early step-in. Whilst the feedbacks of works departments are positive and encouraging, there is a need to conduct a review of the PSS, in particular to address the specific characteristics of the cashflow patterns for different type of projects and contract forms, as well as to establish a specific cashflow pattern for hospital projects, given their significance and special characteristics. There is also a need to update regularly and maintain the database of the PSS.

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Objectives and Scope of the Study

1) Review and recommend enhancements of the PSS, including the standardized project cashflow graphs and the surveillance mechanism, with an aim to addressing the specific characteristics of the cashflow patterns for different type of projects and contract forms, and any other elements that are identified during the study.

2) Provide support in updating and enhancing the existing PSS, which is currently maintained by the service provider employed by the Employer, based on the recommendations.

3) Collect and analyze data and formulate a series of standardized project cashflow graphs dedicated for hospital projects.

4) Provide support in developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) in PSS for predictive analysis and assist in discussion with Oxford Global Projects.

Reference Class Forecasting (RCF)

A series of studies under different consultancy agreements were conducted by Advisian and Oxford Global Projects from 2012 to 2017 to study the feasibility of using RCF in the cost forecasting of HyD, CEDD, DSD, ArchSD and WSD projects. As a result of these studies, cost uplift graphs for the estimation of contingencies were generated for the reference class of the projects of these departments. The consultants presented the cost uplift graphs in the same format for easy interpretation and understanding, and they provided guidance for the user to consider the appropriate level of certainty and determine the contingencies. Whilst the feedbacks from the departments are positive and encouraging, there is a need to conduct a review that will lead to updating the cost uplift graphs and developing time uplift graphs for potential application in forecasting capital projects in Hong Kong.

RCF Picture (1)

Objective and Scope of the Study

1) Review and update reference classes and cost uplift graphs of the projects of the studied departments for cost forecasting.

2) Develop reference classes and time uplift graphs of the projects of the studied departments for time forecasting.

3) Study on the level of contingencies for enhancing the PSS.

Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA)

The objective of this consultancy study is to recommend enhancements on the current “Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA)” process as stipulated in the “Project Administration Handbook for Civil Engineering Works”, aiming at achieving the following objectives:

1) To provide measures to improve the consistency in estimating risks and contingencies of the ERA process;

2) To formulate a systematic approach for estimating risks and contingencies by using Monte Carlo simulation, and

3) To provide measures to address unknown risks.

ERA 1 picture (1) ERA 2 picture (1)

ERA 3 picture (1)